Russia has trained its troops for a potential attack on Japan and South Korea, according to a report by the Financial Times. Leaked military files show detailed plans for strikes on civilian infrastructure in event of war.
The British outlet reviewed 29 Russian military documents and uncovered a strategy devised by Moscow to target the two Asian nations.
The email, dated March 17, was sent by the agent, dubbed the Wind of Change, to Vladimir Osechkin, a Russian human-rights activist who runs the anti-corruption website Gulagu.net, and is now exiled in France.
The FSB agent writes regular dispatches to Osechkin, revealing the anger and discontent inside the service over the war that began when Putin invaded neighboring Ukraine on February 24.
Russia reportedly developed a detailed plan to assess the defensive capabilities and vulnerabilities of both countries. As part of the preparation, several Russian Tu-95 bombers embarked on a 17-hour flight circuit.
This operation took place in 2014, the same year Russia annexed Crimea and during a joint military exercise between South Korea and the United States.
“Confidence that the countries would enter the stage of acute confrontation and even war was high. Why Ukraine was chosen for war in the end [the scenario was not changed much] is for others to answer,” they wrote.
The whistleblower detailed movements of electronic warfare helicopters targeting Japan, while Russia’s propaganda machine was also initiated, with a huge push to label Japanese as “Nazis” and “fascists.”
According to William Alberque, former NATO official who works at the Stimson Center, interviewed by the Financial Times, this sample represents only a small proportion of “hundreds, if not thousands, of mapped targets across Europe, including military targets and critical infrastructure.”
Kuril Islands
A peace treaty formally ending World War II has never been signed by Russia and Japan, largely because of disputes over a group of islands claimed by Japan, but occupied by Russia.
The Kunashiri, Etorofu, Shikotan and Habomai islands of the Kuril Island chain were seized by the USSR at the end of World War II. Tokyo claims the islands as its “Northern Territories” and the issue has strained relations between Russia and Japan for decades.
Russia’s military prepared detailed target lists for a potential war with Japan and South Korea that included nuclear power stations and other civilian infrastructure, according to secret files from 2013-2014 seen.
The strike plans, summarized in a leaked set of Russian military documents, cover 160 sites such as roads, bridges and factories, selected as targets to stop the “regrouping of troops in areas of operational purpose”.
Moscow’s acute concern about its eastern flank is highlighted in the documents, which were shown to western sources. Russian military planners fear the country’s eastern borders would be exposed in any war with NATO and vulnerable to attack from US assets and regional allies.
The documents are drawn from a cache of 29 secret Russian military files, largely focused on training officers for potential conflict on the country’s eastern frontier from 2008-14 and still seen as relevant to Russian strategy.
This year reported on how the documents contain previously unknown details on operating principles for the use of nuclear weapons and outline scenarios for war-gaming a Chinese invasion and for strikes deep inside Europe.
Asia has become central to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy for pursuing the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and his broader stance against NATO.
Russia developed offensive plans targeting civilian and military sites in Japan and South Korea in the event of a war with NATO, the Financial Times reported on Dec. 31, citing documents shown to the outlet by Western sources.
You want Peace, Prepare for War
Leaked emails from a whistleblower at Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), reveal a civil war among President Vladimir Putin‘s closest allies as his invasion of Ukraine continues to falter.
The agent, dubbed the Wind of Change, writes regular dispatches to Russian dissident exile Vladimir Osechkin, revealing the anger and discontent inside the FSB over the war that began when Putin invaded neighbouring Ukraine on February 24.
Dated November, the agent’s latest emails detail inner turmoil and conflict within the Kremlin, predicting an “inevitable” civil war, and that Russia will soon “descend into the abyss of terror” as people grow increasingly tired of the war.
The FSB agent, however, said that “there is no model of ‘just changing power'” in Russia.
“There is no way to ‘change everything’ in Russia so that the country as a whole will function and does not descend into the abyss of terror,” the email said, laying out how a civil war would play out in the country.
“In the beginning we may get a haphazard riot, with only looting and chaotic skirmishes between everyone. Let me try to explain: the struggle of security agencies against Prigozhin’s structures, a real war against each other, is bad, but generally inevitable,” they wrote.
“Or there will be battles of the regions for the division of resources. Or a scramble of various forces for control over regions or chunks of the country (Russia).”
But the country could collapse into total chaos, the agent said. “Believe me—that is far more terrifying. I assert, and this is by no means the solitary private opinion of one simple (FSB) employee: we have f***ed up the country.
We (FSB) screwed up the country not on February 24, when this whole affair began, but much earlier, when February 24 became possible in principle.”
“Chaos, civil war, collapse—yes, it’s all ahead of us. It is inevitable,” the FSB agent said. “Too many in Russia have crossed the point of no return. They plan to be little czars in the areas they manage to capture. At least, that’s the way they are thinking.”
The leaked plans, drawn up between 2008 and 2014 to train military officers for a potential conflict on Russia’s eastern flank, are reportedly still considered “relevant to Russian strategy” today.
The documents outline 160 potential targets, including civilian and military infrastructure such as roads, bridges, factories, and military installations in NATO-allied Japan and South Korea.
The plans detailed how striking these targets could protect Russia’s eastern flank in a broader conflict by disrupting the “regrouping of troops in areas of operational purpose.”
Military targets identified in the plans include the central and regional command headquarters of the Japanese and South Korean armed forces, radar installations, air bases, and naval facilities. Civilian infrastructure targets include roads, bridges, and rail tunnels.
Other key sites include fuel refineries, industrial facilities such as steelworks and chemical factories in Busan, South Korea, and 13 power plants, including a nuclear complex in Tokai, Japan.
Although the plans were drafted between 2008 and 2014, both Russia and NATO are now openly discussing the possibility of war.
Russian Deputy Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, speaking at a Defense Ministry meeting on Dec. 16, said Russia needed to prepare for various scenarios, including a “potential conflict with NATO within the next decade.”
Belousov accused NATO of preparing for war, citing actions such as appointing a representative in Kyiv and supporting Ukraine’s NATO membership during the Alliance’s 75th-anniversary summit in July 2024.
On the Atlantic side, European NATO foreign ministers have begun discussing a gradual increase in the alliance’s defense spending target from 2% to 3% of GDP by 2030. The Trump administration proposed 5% of GDP for defense.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius in particular advocated for a larger defense budget, saying: “If Putin attacks, we need to be able to wage war.”
